Unlocking Aviation's Next Era: A Call for Personalized Aircraft (Part 2)
In Part 1 of this series, I addressed the current limitations of the aviation industry in transitioning to a new era. Various factors contribute to this challenge, with one of the most prominent being the duopoly between Boeing and Airbus, along with the emergence of the Chinese manufacturer COMAC, which is yet to pose significant competition. While Airbus may face the greatest threat, a detailed discussion on this matter is reserved for another time. The Boeing-Airbus duopoly fosters high complacency in the industry, leading to a lack of incentive for innovation when sales are secure. When an airline seeks to purchase an aircraft, the options are limited to Boeing or Airbus, not necessarily the optimal solution but rather what is available.
Taking a more holistic perspective, it is crucial to identify the bottlenecks in the aeronautical industry that impede a rise in the rate of innovation. The primary objective is to empower any enterprise interested in transporting passengers by air to create their aircraft from scratch. This empowerment would enable airlines to design and operate the perfect aircraft for their specific routes. Achieving this ambitious goal requires overcoming existing industry restrictions, either through leveraging current technology or creating new solutions. It's a challenging but plausible endeavor that demands talent, energy, and determination.
These advancements can be fueled by progress in AI, robotics, and access to capital.
The first hurdle to overcome is the design of new aircraft from scratch, a challenge that could be addressed using generative AI. Similar to how users can seek inspiration from generative AI tools, airlines could input operational specifications, such as passenger capacity, range, and route duration, to generate designs that meet their requirements. However, these tools must not only adhere to the laws of physics for flight but also comply with regulatory standards set by agencies like EASA and FAA. AI can play a crucial role in rectifying any discrepancies before the designs move forward.
Another significant restriction is the state of aero materials. The limitations, especially in the low-speed capabilities of current planes, stem from materials unable to withstand supersonic or hypersonic conditions. Advances in software, such as DeepMind, could contribute to solving this problem by leveraging AI models to discover new materials.
A disruptive concept that the aerospace industry needs to embrace is transitioning from fossil fuel combustibles to electricity. While this may sound ambitious, both physics and empirical evidence support the possibility. Electric-powered has been demonstrated in a video where a single person achieves with a few thrusters. The possibilities could be vast if more people and resources were dedicated to improving these designs.
Lastly, to drive innovation, there is a need to accelerate the manufacturing process, iterate more quickly, and reduce the total cost of building an aircraft. Drawing inspiration from the automotive industry and, more specifically, the rapid prototyping in the Chinese EV market could guide the aeronautical sector toward faster development cycles.
Capital is essential to fuel this revolution. In the startup world, there is a new wave focusing on creating more hardware, aligning with Peter Thiel's perspective that "We've Seen Innovation in Bits, But Not Enough in Atoms." This capital infusion is critical to propel these ambitious ideas into reality and shape the future of aviation.